Fovea:CAPTM - Report
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Barbara

A viable path towards achieving UCSB's published GHG emission goals

Emissions Forecast and Reduction Goals

  • Business as usual forecast: The Forecast to the right of gray-shaded Historical is business as usual scope 1 and scope 2 MTCO2e, without any interceding solutions, from the first year of the Forecast thru 2040. The black dashed line is the MTCO2e goal, as it culminates to 0 in 2025.
  • 472,204
    tCO2e
    cumulative abatement to meet goals for 2021 to 2040
  • $216 millionNPV forecasted energy spending 2021 - 2040
    2021: $ 13 million
    2040: $ 22 million
....
--Purchased Offsets
--Scope 1 Emissions
--Scope 2 Emissions
--Total GHG Emissions
--GHG Reduction Target
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Year Purchased Offsets Scope 1 Emissions Scope 2 Emissions Total GHG Emissions GHG Reduction Target
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2005 0 20,151 26,059 46,210 46,210
2006 0 20,313 27,138 47,450 47,450
2007 0 22,196 27,655 49,851 49,851
2008 0 22,061 29,013 51,074 51,074
2009 0 23,003 28,198 51,201 51,201
2010 0 23,581 29,425 53,006 53,006
2011 -1,334 24,467 28,726 51,860 51,860
2012 -940 22,759 28,746 50,565 50,565
2013 0 21,364 27,902 49,266 49,266
2014 0 17,580 25,362 42,942 42,942
2015 -1,238 16,737 26,774 42,273 42,273
2016 -1,389 19,327 23,823 41,761 41,761
2017 -1,444 19,344 21,458 39,358 39,358
2018 -1,531 20,686 20,903 40,058 40,058
2019 -1,562 21,308 20,104 39,850 39,850
2020 -1,317 18,346 8,255 25,284 25,284
2021 0 20,726 8,989 29,714 29,714
2022 0 20,737 8,839 29,576 29,576
2023 0 20,787 8,782 29,570 29,570
2024 0 20,935 9,326 30,261 30,261
2025 0 20,945 9,168 30,112 0
2026 0 20,954 9,012 29,966 0
2027 0 20,954 8,859 29,813 0
2028 0 20,960 8,708 29,668 0
2029 0 20,960 8,560 29,520 0
2030 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2031 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2032 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2033 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2034 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2035 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2036 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2037 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2038 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2039 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2040 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
....
-- Purchased Offsets
-- Stationary Combustion
-- Mobile Fuel
-- Purchased Electricity, CA
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Year Purchased Offsets Stationary Combustion Mobile Fuel Purchased Electricity, CA
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2005 0 18,993 1,148 26,059
2006 0 19,143 1,160 27,138
2007 0 21,007 1,179 27,655
2008 0 20,840 1,211 29,013
2009 0 21,782 1,211 28,198
2010 0 22,359 1,211 29,425
2011 -1,334 23,234 1,157 28,726
2012 -940 21,299 1,389 28,746
2013 0 19,870 1,234 27,902
2014 0 16,117 1,331 25,362
2015 -1,238 15,076 1,495 26,774
2016 -1,389 17,718 1,517 23,823
2017 -1,444 18,098 1,183 21,458
2018 -1,531 19,152 1,348 20,903
2019 -1,562 19,523 1,379 20,104
2020 -1,317 16,461 896 8,255
2021 0 19,720 912 8,989
2022 0 19,722 922 8,839
2023 0 19,762 932 8,782
2024 0 19,897 941 9,326
2025 0 19,897 951 9,168
2026 0 19,897 961 9,012
2027 0 19,897 961 8,859
2028 0 19,900 961 8,708
2029 0 19,900 961 8,560
2030 0 19,900 961 8,415
2031 0 19,900 961 8,415
2032 0 19,900 961 8,415
2033 0 19,900 961 8,415
2034 0 19,900 961 8,415
2035 0 19,900 961 8,415
2036 0 19,900 961 8,415
2037 0 19,900 961 8,415
2038 0 19,900 961 8,415
2039 0 19,900 961 8,415
2040 0 19,900 961 8,415
....
-- BAU
-- GHG Reduction Target
-- Recommended Portfolio
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Year BAU Portfolio_1
MTCO2e MTCO2e
2005 46,210 46,210
2006 47,450 47,450
2007 49,851 49,851
2008 51,074 51,074
2009 51,201 51,201
2010 53,006 53,006
2011 51,860 51,860
2012 50,565 50,565
2013 49,266 49,266
2014 42,942 42,942
2015 42,273 42,273
2016 41,761 41,761
2017 39,358 39,358
2018 40,058 40,058
2019 39,850 39,850
2020 25,284 25,284
2021 29,714 23,067
2022 29,576 18,807
2023 29,570 18,075
2024 30,261 17,212
2025 30,112 -0
2026 29,966 0
2027 29,813 0
2028 29,668 -0
2029 29,520 -0
2030 29,375 0
2031 29,375 0
2032 29,375 0
2033 29,375 0
2034 29,375 0
2035 29,375 0
2036 29,375 0
2037 29,375 0
2038 29,375 0
2039 29,375 0
2040 29,375 0
....
--Purchased Offsets
--Scope 1 Emissions
--Scope 2 Emissions
--Total GHG Emissions
--GHG Reduction Target
--Reference Case
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Year Purchased Offsets Scope 1 Emissions Scope 2 Emissions Total GHG Emissions GHG Reduction Target
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2005 0 20,151 26,059 46,210 46,210
2006 0 20,313 27,138 47,450 47,450
2007 0 22,196 27,655 49,851 49,851
2008 0 22,061 29,013 51,074 51,074
2009 0 23,003 28,198 51,201 51,201
2010 0 23,581 29,425 53,006 53,006
2011 -1,334 24,467 28,726 51,860 51,860
2012 -940 22,759 28,746 50,565 50,565
2013 0 21,364 27,902 49,266 49,266
2014 0 17,580 25,362 42,942 42,942
2015 -1,238 16,737 26,774 42,273 42,273
2016 -1,389 19,327 23,823 41,761 41,761
2017 -1,444 19,344 21,458 39,358 39,358
2018 -1,531 20,686 20,903 40,058 40,058
2019 -1,562 21,308 20,104 39,850 39,850
2020 -1,317 18,346 8,255 25,284 25,284
2021 0 20,726 8,989 29,714 29,714
2022 0 20,737 8,839 29,576 29,576
2023 0 20,787 8,782 29,570 29,570
2024 0 20,935 9,326 30,261 30,261
2025 0 20,945 9,168 30,112 0
2026 0 20,954 9,012 29,966 0
2027 0 20,954 8,859 29,813 0
2028 0 20,960 8,708 29,668 0
2029 0 20,960 8,560 29,520 0
2030 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2031 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2032 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2033 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2034 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2035 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2036 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2037 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2038 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2039 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
2040 0 20,961 8,415 29,375 0
....
-- Reduce: Energy Efficiency
-- Avoid: High performance new buildings
-- Reduce: Energy Conservation
-- Replace: On-Campus Renewables
-- Total GHG Emissions
-- Goal Metrics - 2005 BAU Trajectory (w/ growth)

Solution Comparison

This diagram shows the Levelized-cost of GHG Abatement for each solutions that have been modeled for your institution. All solutions shown save carbon emissions relative to the Business-as-usual Reference Case. Those is green save money per ton of carbon emissions abated, while those in red cost money per ton of abatement. The vertical dimension of each red or green colored block indicates the scale of average annual abatement estimated. The horizontal dimension corresponds to associated savings or costs. All other considerations aside, a rational investor would consider solutions in the upper left section of this diagram first for implementation before considering those in the lower right.

Costs 1
Savings 1
Average Annual GHG
Reduction Potential 2

1 per metric ton of carbon emissions avoided
2 in metric tons of carbon emissions

Solutions List

Solutions Name Net CAPEX Net Commodity Costs Net O&M Cash Flows Avg. GHG Impact % of Avg
Forecasted GHG
Levelized Cost
of GHG Abatement
$millions $millions $millions $millions tCO2e / yr % of tCO2e $/tCO2e
Avoid: High performance new buildings
High Performance New Electric Buildings $2.92 $7.68 $0.00 $10.59 -869 -2.9% $1113.58
Reduce: Energy Efficiency
Funded Energy Efficiency Projects $1.51 $-4.16 $0.00 $-2.64 -506 -1.7% $-397.35
HDAE Energy Efficiency Projects $2.63 $-4.21 $0.00 $-1.58 -570 -1.9% $-255.18
FM Energy Efficiency Projects $5.52 $-12.41 $1.95 $-4.93 -3,358 -11.4% $-122.05
Replace: On-Campus Renewables
Onsite Solar PV $0.00 $-0.78 $0.00 $-0.78 -420 -1.4% $-150.06
Student Affairs Renewable Energy Initiative $0.09 $0.00 $-0.08 $0.00 -10 -0.0% $10.87
Solar-supplied Heat Pump $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 -1 -0.0% $466.38
Director`s Residence - battery and inverter replacement $0.01 $-0.01 $0.00 $-0.00 -1 -0.0% $-8.55
Replace: UC Biomethane
UCOP: Biomethane Contracts $0.00 $5.59 $0.00 $5.59 -7,925 -21.4% $75.39
Replace: UC Renewable PPAs
UC Wholesale Power Program $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -7,156 -24.2% $0
Offset: UC-developed offsets
AB 32 Compliance Offsets $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -523 -1.8% $0

Solution Portfolios

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-- BAU
-- Current Portfolio
-- GHG Reduction Target
--High Performance New Electric Bu...
--HDAE Energy Efficiency Projects
--Funded Energy Efficiency Projects
--Onsite Solar PV
--FM Energy Efficiency Projects
--UCOP: Biomethane Contracts
--Student Affairs Renewable Energy...
--UC Wholesale Power Program
--Solar-supplied Heat Pump
--AB 32 Compliance Offsets
--Director`s Residence - battery a...
--Unspecified Offsets
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Cost Comparison

      NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV)
Incremental to BAU
PORTFOLIO DESCRIPTION AVG GHG
tCO2e / Yr
CAPEX ENERGY OTHER
OPEX
OFFSETS TOTAL
BAU Business as Usual Reference Case 30 k $0 M $216 M $0 M $2 M $219 M
Recommended Portfolio Working CAP (Energy Efficiency projects, 40% UC procured biogas, high performance new buildings and building electrification, Onsite solar, AB 32 compliance offsets, UC green power) 4 k
-26 k
$12 M
$12 M
$208 M
$-8 M
$2 M
$2 M
$1 M
$-2 M
$223 M
$4 M
....
-- Total CAPEX
-- Commodity Purchases
-- Non-Commodity O&M
-- Cost of Offsets to Goal
-- Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)
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-- Total Cash Flow (OPEX + CAPEX)
-- Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)
-- Non-Commodity O&M
-- Cost of Offsets to Goal
-- Natural Gas Purchased Cost - Energy
-- Electricity Purchased Cost - Energy
-- Mobile Fuels
-- Total Cash Flow + SCC
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Cost of Utility Services
History Forecast
Item 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036
Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) $1,264,200 $1,530,278 $1,789,060 $2,033,118 $2,356,941
Non-Commodity O&M $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cost of Offsets to Goal $0 $0 $239,728 $235,000 $235,000
Natural Gas Purchased Cost - Energy $2,275,767 $2,790,074 $3,184,741 $3,603,243 $4,076,738
Electricity Purchased Cost - Energy $9,391,340 $9,597,949 $11,370,319 $12,900,516 $14,383,400
Mobile Fuels $545,318 $575,375 $751,857 $932,756 $1,157,246
Total Cash Flow + SCC $13,488,174 $14,505,740 $17,351,197 $19,724,596 $22,234,158
Total Cost of Energy $12,223,974 $12,975,461 $15,562,137 $17,691,478 $19,877,217
Item 2020 2021 - 2025 2026 - 2030 2031 - 2035 2036 - 2040
Total CAPEX $0 $0 $0 $0
Year Total Cash Flow (OPEX + CAPEX) Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) Non-Commodity O&M Cost of Offsets to Goal Natural Gas Purchased Cost - Energy Electricity Purchased Cost - Energy Mobile Fuels Total Cash Flow + SCC
Total Cash Flow (OPEX + CAPEX) Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) Non-Commodity O&M Cost of Offsets to Goal Natural Gas Purchased Cost - Energy Electricity Purchased Cost - Energy Mobile Fuels Total Cash Flow + SCC
2005 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2006 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2007 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2008 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2009 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2010 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2011 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2012 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2013 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2014 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2015 $11,624,476 $0 $0 $0 $2,178,638 $9,445,838 $0 $11,624,476
2016 $12,828,218 $0 $0 $0 $3,163,826 $9,664,392 $0 $12,828,218
2017 $12,194,066 $0 $0 $0 $2,373,266 $9,820,800 $0 $12,194,066
2018 $13,070,722 $0 $0 $0 $2,511,712 $9,777,055 $770,129 $13,070,722
2019 $13,090,239 $0 $0 $0 $2,654,341 $9,609,900 $816,344 $13,090,239
2020 $12,223,974 $1,264,200 $0 $0 $2,275,767 $9,391,340 $545,318 $13,488,174
2021 $12,975,461 $1,530,278 $0 $0 $2,790,074 $9,597,949 $575,375 $14,505,740
2022 $13,291,920 $1,568,837 $0 $0 $2,860,020 $9,812,226 $607,071 $14,860,757
2023 $13,722,580 $1,615,571 $0 $0 $2,937,391 $10,131,400 $640,494 $15,338,150
2024 $14,607,283 $1,702,955 $0 $0 $3,031,283 $10,886,063 $675,739 $16,310,239
2025 $15,201,251 $1,745,426 $0 $240,896 $3,107,065 $11,125,556 $712,902 $16,946,677
2026 $15,562,137 $1,789,060 $0 $239,728 $3,184,741 $11,370,319 $751,857 $17,351,197
2027 $15,924,494 $1,833,311 $0 $238,504 $3,264,360 $11,620,466 $784,982 $17,757,805
2028 $16,464,487 $1,879,103 $0 $237,344 $3,345,969 $12,044,211 $819,568 $18,343,590
2029 $16,848,813 $1,925,819 $0 $236,160 $3,429,618 $12,309,183 $855,681 $18,774,631
2030 $17,285,671 $1,973,901 $0 $235,000 $3,515,359 $12,622,814 $893,387 $19,259,571
2031 $17,691,478 $2,033,118 $0 $235,000 $3,603,243 $12,900,516 $932,756 $19,724,596
2032 $18,107,368 $2,094,111 $0 $235,000 $3,693,324 $13,184,327 $973,862 $20,201,479
2033 $18,533,607 $2,156,935 $0 $235,000 $3,785,657 $13,474,383 $1,016,783 $20,690,541
2034 $18,970,471 $2,221,643 $0 $235,000 $3,880,298 $13,770,819 $1,061,597 $21,192,113
2035 $19,418,244 $2,288,292 $0 $235,000 $3,977,306 $14,073,777 $1,108,389 $21,706,536
2036 $19,877,217 $2,356,941 $0 $235,000 $4,076,738 $14,383,400 $1,157,246 $22,234,158
2037 $20,347,692 $2,427,649 $0 $235,000 $4,178,657 $14,699,835 $1,208,259 $22,775,341
2038 $20,829,978 $2,500,478 $0 $235,000 $4,283,123 $15,023,231 $1,261,523 $23,330,456
2039 $21,324,392 $2,575,493 $0 $235,000 $4,390,201 $15,353,742 $1,317,138 $23,899,885
2040 $21,831,264 $2,652,758 $0 $235,000 $4,499,956 $15,691,525 $1,375,208 $24,484,021
....
-- Cumulative Capital
-- Cumulative Savings
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-- Total CAPEX
-- Commodity Purchases
-- Non-Commodity O&M
-- Cost of Offsets to Goal
-- Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)
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Cost of Utility Services
History Forecast
Item 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036
Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) $1,264,200 $1,187,943 $0 $0 $0
Non-Commodity O&M $0 $150,000 $143,578 $142,839 $142,016
Cost of Offsets to Goal $0 $0 $69,754 $61,208 $57,929
Natural Gas Purchased Cost - Energy $2,275,767 $2,790,074 $3,184,741 $3,603,243 $4,076,738
Electricity Purchased Cost - Energy $9,391,340 $9,597,949 $11,370,319 $12,900,516 $14,383,400
Mobile Fuels $545,318 $575,375 $751,857 $932,756 $1,157,246
Total Cash Flow + SCC $13,488,174 $15,367,784 $15,984,906 $17,877,576 $19,326,851
Total Cost of Energy $12,223,974 $12,716,593 $15,312,906 $17,205,576 $18,654,851
Item 2020 2021 - 2025 2026 - 2030 2031 - 2035 2036 - 2040
Total CAPEX $2,101,621 $9,551,192 $3,360,000 $3,360,000

Resource Consumption

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Sensitivity Analysis

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