Fovea:CAPTM - Report
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Barbara

A viable path towards achieving UCSB's published GHG emission goals

Emissions Forecast and Reduction Goals

  • 187,840
    MTCO2e    cumulative abatement to meet goals for 2023 to 2050
  • $358 millionNPV forecasted energy spending 2023 - 2050
    2023: $ 16 million
    2050: $ 35 million
....
--Offsets
--Scope 2
--Scope 1
--GHG Reduction Goal
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Year Offsets Scope 2 Scope 1 GHG Reduction Goal
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 0 26,059 20,141 0
2007 0 27,138 20,303 0
2008 0 27,655 22,186 0
2009 0 29,013 22,051 0
2010 0 28,198 22,993 0
2011 0 29,442 24,394 0
2012 -1,334 28,523 23,111 0
2013 -940 27,902 21,057 0
2014 0 25,362 17,412 0
2015 -1,238 26,774 16,968 0
2016 -1,389 23,823 19,052 0
2017 -1,444 21,458 19,343 0
2018 -1,531 20,903 20,686 0
2019 -1,562 20,104 21,308 39,850
2020 -1,315 8,237 17,579 39,850
2021 -1,356 303 18,150 39,850
2022 -1,346 191 18,320 39,850
2023 0 751 18,391 39,850
2024 0 807 18,402 39,850
2025 0 794 18,414 39,850
2026 0 780 18,426 39,850
2027 0 767 19,593 39,850
2028 0 754 21,245 39,850
2029 0 741 21,647 39,850
2030 0 728 22,198 39,850
2031 0 716 22,802 37,459
2032 0 716 22,834 35,068
2033 0 716 22,834 32,677
2034 0 716 22,834 30,286
2035 0 716 22,834 27,895
2036 0 716 22,834 25,504
2037 0 716 22,834 23,113
2038 0 716 22,834 20,722
2039 0 716 22,834 18,331
2040 0 716 22,834 15,940
2041 0 716 22,834 13,549
2042 0 716 22,834 11,158
2043 0 716 22,834 8,767
2044 0 716 22,834 6,376
2045 0 716 22,834 3,985
2046 0 716 22,834 3,985
2047 0 716 22,834 3,985
2048 0 716 22,834 3,985
2049 0 716 22,834 3,985
2050 0 717 22,835 3,985
....
-- Stationary Combustion
-- Other Stationary Combustion
-- Mobile
-- Other Stationary Combustion
-- Purchased Electricity
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Year Stationary Combustion Other Stationary Combustion Mobile Other Stationary Combustion Purchased Electricity
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 18,993 0 1,148 0 26,059
2007 19,143 0 1,160 0 27,138
2008 21,007 0 1,179 0 27,655
2009 20,840 0 1,211 0 29,013
2010 21,782 0 1,211 0 28,198
2011 23,171 0 1,157 0 29,442
2012 21,661 51 1,389 51 28,523
2013 19,563 191 1,234 191 27,902
2014 15,949 122 1,331 122 25,362
2015 15,307 122 1,495 122 26,774
2016 17,445 48 1,517 48 23,823
2017 18,098 0 1,183 0 21,458
2018 19,152 84 1,348 84 20,903
2019 19,523 125 1,379 125 20,104
2020 16,437 81 968 81 8,237
2021 17,107 62 944 62 303
2022 16,867 110 1,087 110 191
2023 16,908 111 1,113 111 751
2024 16,908 111 1,125 111 807
2025 16,908 111 1,137 111 794
2026 16,908 111 1,149 111 780
2027 18,052 114 1,160 114 767
2028 19,688 119 1,160 119 754
2029 20,067 126 1,160 126 741
2030 20,613 128 1,160 128 728
2031 21,212 129 1,160 129 716
2032 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2033 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2034 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2035 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2036 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2037 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2038 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2039 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2040 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2041 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2042 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2043 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2044 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2045 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2046 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2047 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2048 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2049 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
2050 21,241 130 1,160 130 716
....
-- BAU
-- GHG Reduction Goal
-- Recommended Portfolio
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Year BAU Portfolio_1
MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 46,200 46,200
2007 47,440 47,440
2008 49,841 49,841
2009 51,064 51,064
2010 51,191 51,191
2011 53,836 53,836
2012 50,300 50,300
2013 48,019 48,019
2014 42,774 42,774
2015 42,504 42,504
2016 41,486 41,486
2017 39,357 39,357
2018 40,058 40,058
2019 39,850 39,850
2020 24,501 24,501
2021 17,097 17,097
2022 17,166 17,166
2023 19,141 17,814
2024 19,210 16,927
2025 19,208 13,220
2026 19,206 12,077
2027 20,360 12,531
2028 21,999 13,027
2029 22,388 13,567
2030 22,927 11,131
2031 23,518 12,650
2032 23,550 13,312
2033 23,550 13,887
2034 23,550 14,445
2035 23,550 14,998
2036 23,550 15,608
2037 23,550 16,221
2038 23,550 16,834
2039 23,550 17,217
2040 23,550 17,599
2041 23,550 17,519
2042 23,550 17,439
2043 23,550 17,359
2044 23,550 17,279
2045 23,550 -0
2046 23,550 -0
2047 23,550 -0
2048 23,550 -0
2049 23,550 -0
2050 23,552 -0
....
--Offsets
--Scope 2
--Scope 1
--GHG Reduction Goal
--Reference Case
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Year Offsets Scope 2 Scope 1 GHG Reduction Goal
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 0 26,059 20,141 0
2007 0 27,138 20,303 0
2008 0 27,655 22,186 0
2009 0 29,013 22,051 0
2010 0 28,198 22,993 0
2011 0 29,442 24,394 0
2012 -1,334 28,523 23,111 0
2013 -940 27,902 21,057 0
2014 0 25,362 17,412 0
2015 -1,238 26,774 16,968 0
2016 -1,389 23,823 19,052 0
2017 -1,444 21,458 19,343 0
2018 -1,531 20,903 20,686 0
2019 -1,562 20,104 21,308 39,850
2020 -1,315 8,237 17,579 39,850
2021 -1,356 303 18,150 39,850
2022 -1,346 191 18,320 39,850
2023 0 751 18,391 39,850
2024 0 807 18,402 39,850
2025 0 794 18,414 39,850
2026 0 780 18,426 39,850
2027 0 767 19,593 39,850
2028 0 754 21,245 39,850
2029 0 741 21,647 39,850
2030 0 728 22,198 39,850
2031 0 716 22,802 37,459
2032 0 716 22,834 35,068
2033 0 716 22,834 32,677
2034 0 716 22,834 30,286
2035 0 716 22,834 27,895
2036 0 716 22,834 25,504
2037 0 716 22,834 23,113
2038 0 716 22,834 20,722
2039 0 716 22,834 18,331
2040 0 716 22,834 15,940
2041 0 716 22,834 13,549
2042 0 716 22,834 11,158
2043 0 716 22,834 8,767
2044 0 716 22,834 6,376
2045 0 716 22,834 3,985
2046 0 716 22,834 3,985
2047 0 716 22,834 3,985
2048 0 716 22,834 3,985
2049 0 716 22,834 3,985
2050 0 717 22,835 3,985

Solution Comparison

This diagram shows the Levelized-cost of GHG Abatement for each solutions that have been modeled for your institution. All solutions shown save carbon emissions relative to the Business-as-usual Reference Case. Those is green save money per ton of carbon emissions abated, while those in red cost money per ton of abatement. The vertical dimension of each red or green colored block indicates the scale of average annual abatement estimated. The horizontal dimension corresponds to associated savings or costs. All other considerations aside, a rational investor would consider solutions in the upper left section of this diagram first for implementation before considering those in the lower right.

Costs 1
Savings 1
Average Annual GHG
Reduction Potential 2

1 per metric ton of carbon emissions avoided
2 in metric tons of carbon emissions

Solution Portfolios

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-- BAU
-- Current Portfolio
-- GHG Reduction Goal
--High Performance New Electric Bu...
--REI Heat Pump Project
--HDAE Energy Efficiency Projects
--Funded Energy Efficiency Projects
--FM Energy Efficiency Projects
--UCOP: Biomethane Contracts
--Student Affairs Renewable Energy...
--AB 32 Compliance Offsets
--Remaining Emissions
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Cost Comparison

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-- CAPEX
-- Commodities
-- Operations and Maintenance
-- Social Cost of Carbon
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-- Cashflow
-- Social Cost of Carbon
-- Operations and Maintenance
-- Natural Gas
-- Grid Electricity
-- Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased)
-- Mobile Fuels
-- Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon
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Cost of Utility Services
History Forecast
Item 2022 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048
Social Cost of Carbon $4,659,759 $4,890,503 $6,054,947 $6,982,978 $7,522,651 $8,104,031 $8,730,343
Operations and Maintenance $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Natural Gas $2,923,802 $3,004,100 $3,957,845 $4,831,041 $5,465,880 $6,184,141 $6,996,788
Grid Electricity $109,548 $477,952 $583,008 $650,023 $724,742 $808,049 $900,932
Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Mobile Fuels $700,353 $738,795 $954,445 $1,183,090 $1,466,662 $1,818,373 $2,254,619
Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon $19,377,368 $20,426,933 $25,078,394 $30,145,629 $33,586,430 $37,451,249 $41,797,892
Total Cost of Energy $14,717,609 $15,536,429 $19,023,447 $23,162,650 $26,063,780 $29,347,218 $33,067,549
Item 2022 2023 - 2027 2028 - 2032 2033 - 2037 2038 - 2042 2043 - 2047 2048 - 2052
CAPEX $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3
Year Cashflow Social Cost of Carbon Operations and Maintenance Natural Gas Grid Electricity Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) Mobile Fuels Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon
Cashflow Social Cost of Carbon Operations and Maintenance Natural Gas Grid Electricity Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) Mobile Fuels Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon
2006 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2007 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2008 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2009 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2010 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2011 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2012 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2013 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2014 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2015 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2016 $11,898,593 $0 $0 $2,452,755 $9,445,838 $0 $0 $11,898,593
2017 $12,944,349 $0 $0 $3,279,956 $9,664,392 $0 $0 $12,944,349
2018 $12,332,512 $0 $0 $2,511,712 $9,820,800 $0 $0 $12,332,512
2019 $13,136,785 $0 $0 $2,589,601 $9,777,055 $0 $770,129 $13,136,785
2020 $11,903,037 $0 $0 $2,220,261 $4,583,781 $0 $493,664 $11,903,037
2021 $13,207,631 $4,576,344 $0 $2,885,011 $155,790 $0 $539,010 $17,783,975
2022 $14,717,609 $4,659,759 $0 $2,923,802 $109,548 $0 $700,353 $19,377,368
2023 $15,536,429 $4,890,503 $0 $3,004,100 $477,952 $0 $738,795 $20,426,933
2024 $15,958,572 $4,981,593 $0 $3,079,203 $534,405 $0 $779,326 $20,940,165
2025 $16,345,648 $5,055,818 $0 $3,156,183 $546,162 $0 $822,059 $21,401,466
2026 $16,742,904 $5,131,234 $0 $3,235,087 $558,178 $0 $867,113 $21,874,139
2027 $17,739,387 $5,521,040 $0 $3,540,395 $570,458 $0 $914,330 $23,260,427
2028 $19,023,447 $6,054,947 $0 $3,957,845 $583,008 $0 $954,445 $25,078,394
2029 $20,369,436 $6,254,557 $0 $4,134,856 $595,834 $0 $996,323 $26,623,993
2030 $21,154,574 $6,501,151 $0 $4,353,577 $608,942 $0 $1,040,045 $27,655,725
2031 $21,995,038 $6,768,910 $0 $4,591,911 $622,339 $0 $1,085,689 $28,763,948
2032 $22,624,031 $6,879,782 $0 $4,713,211 $636,030 $0 $1,133,341 $29,503,813
2033 $23,162,650 $6,982,978 $0 $4,831,041 $650,023 $0 $1,183,090 $30,145,629
2034 $23,714,654 $7,087,723 $0 $4,951,817 $664,324 $0 $1,235,028 $30,802,377
2035 $24,280,397 $7,194,039 $0 $5,075,613 $678,939 $0 $1,289,251 $31,474,436
2036 $24,860,247 $7,301,949 $0 $5,202,503 $693,875 $0 $1,345,861 $32,162,196
2037 $25,454,578 $7,411,479 $0 $5,332,566 $709,141 $0 $1,404,961 $32,866,057
2038 $26,063,780 $7,522,651 $0 $5,465,880 $724,742 $0 $1,466,662 $33,586,430
2039 $26,688,250 $7,635,491 $0 $5,602,527 $740,686 $0 $1,531,078 $34,323,740
2040 $27,328,400 $7,750,023 $0 $5,742,590 $756,981 $0 $1,598,330 $35,078,423
2041 $27,984,652 $7,866,273 $0 $5,886,155 $773,635 $0 $1,668,542 $35,850,925
2042 $28,657,442 $7,984,267 $0 $6,033,309 $790,655 $0 $1,741,844 $36,641,709
2043 $29,347,218 $8,104,031 $0 $6,184,141 $808,049 $0 $1,818,373 $37,451,249
2044 $30,054,442 $8,225,592 $0 $6,338,745 $825,826 $0 $1,898,270 $38,280,034
2045 $30,779,590 $8,348,976 $0 $6,497,214 $843,994 $0 $1,981,685 $39,128,566
2046 $31,523,151 $8,474,210 $0 $6,659,644 $862,562 $0 $2,068,773 $39,997,362
2047 $32,285,631 $8,601,324 $0 $6,826,135 $881,539 $0 $2,159,694 $40,886,955
2048 $33,067,549 $8,730,343 $0 $6,996,788 $900,932 $0 $2,254,619 $41,797,892
2049 $33,869,442 $8,861,299 $0 $7,171,708 $920,753 $0 $2,353,723 $42,730,740
2050 $34,691,862 $8,994,982 $0 $7,351,001 $941,009 $0 $2,457,191 $43,686,844
....
-- Cumulative Capital
-- Cumulative Savings
-- Cumulative Savings w/Carbon
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-- CAPEX
-- Commodities
-- Operations and Maintenance
-- Social Cost of Carbon
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Cost of Utility Services
History Forecast
Item 2022 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048
Social Cost of Carbon $4,659,759 $4,551,472 $3,585,597 $4,117,587 $5,377,413 $5,973,602 $6,287,381
Operations and Maintenance $0 $0 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000
Natural Gas $2,923,802 $2,920,244 $3,391,011 $4,665,860 $4,305,624 $4,511,362 $4,972,787
Grid Electricity $109,548 $406,745 $338,778 $-1,558,787 $-2,355,117 $-3,313,923 $-4,462,036
Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Mobile Fuels $700,353 $738,795 $954,445 $1,183,090 $1,466,662 $1,818,373 $2,254,619
Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon $19,377,368 $20,716,440 $26,130,730 $25,728,246 $28,023,078 $30,348,069 $32,789,959
Total Cost of Energy $14,717,609 $15,381,366 $18,362,383 $20,938,659 $21,973,665 $23,702,467 $25,830,578
Item 2022 2023 - 2027 2028 - 2032 2033 - 2037 2038 - 2042 2043 - 2047 2048 - 2052
CAPEX $-3,923,296 $-2,612,954 $3,360,000 $3,360,000 $3,360,000 $2,016,003

Resource Consumption

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-- BAU
-- Recommended Portfolio
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-- Recommended Portfolio
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-- Recommended Portfolio
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-- Recommended Portfolio
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-- Recommended Portfolio
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-- Recommended Portfolio
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-- Recommended Portfolio
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