Fovea:CAPTM - Report
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Barbara

A viable path towards achieving UCSB's published GHG emission goals

Emissions Forecast and Reduction Goals

  • 574,601
    MTCO2e    cumulative abatement to meet goals for 2024 to 2050
  • $479 millionNPV forecasted energy spending 2024 - 2050
    2024: $ 17 million
    2050: $ 49 million
....
--Offsets
--Scope 3
--Scope 2
--Scope 1
--GHG Reduction Goal
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Year Offsets Scope 3 Scope 2 Scope 1 GHG Reduction Goal
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 0 21,552 26,059 20,141 0
2007 0 21,164 27,138 20,303 0
2008 0 20,668 27,655 22,186 0
2009 0 20,397 29,013 22,051 0
2010 0 19,690 28,198 22,993 0
2011 0 19,420 29,442 24,394 0
2012 -1,334 19,465 28,523 23,111 0
2013 -940 18,492 27,902 21,057 0
2014 0 15,351 25,362 17,412 0
2015 -1,238 19,323 26,774 16,968 0
2016 -1,389 17,517 23,823 19,052 0
2017 -1,444 16,844 21,458 19,343 0
2018 -1,531 18,398 20,903 20,686 0
2019 -1,562 15,796 20,104 21,308 55,646
2020 -1,315 4,719 8,237 17,579 55,646
2021 -1,356 6,446 303 18,150 55,646
2022 -1,346 13,588 193 18,320 55,646
2023 -1,406 14,469 229 19,273 55,646
2024 0 14,614 309 19,376 54,016
2025 0 14,760 304 19,387 52,386
2026 0 14,907 299 19,398 50,755
2027 0 15,056 812 19,902 49,125
2028 0 15,207 1,105 20,204 47,495
2029 0 15,359 4,625 23,349 45,865
2030 0 15,513 5,231 24,196 44,234
2031 0 15,668 5,574 24,811 41,656
2032 0 15,825 5,635 24,854 39,078
2033 0 15,983 5,635 24,866 36,500
2034 0 16,143 5,635 24,878 33,922
2035 0 16,304 5,635 24,890 31,344
2036 0 16,467 5,635 24,902 28,766
2037 0 16,632 5,635 24,914 26,188
2038 0 16,798 5,635 24,927 23,611
2039 0 16,966 5,635 24,939 21,033
2040 0 17,136 5,635 24,952 18,455
2041 0 17,307 5,635 24,964 15,877
2042 0 17,480 5,635 24,977 13,299
2043 0 17,655 5,635 24,990 10,721
2044 0 17,831 5,635 25,003 8,143
2045 0 18,010 5,635 25,017 5,720
2046 0 18,190 5,635 25,030 5,720
2047 0 18,372 5,635 25,044 5,720
2048 0 18,556 5,635 25,057 5,720
2049 0 18,741 5,635 25,071 5,720
2050 0 18,928 5,636 25,086 5,720
....
-- Air Travel
-- Commuting
-- Purchased Electricity
-- Other Stationary Combustion
-- Mobile
-- Other Stationary Combustion
-- Stationary Combustion
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Year Air Travel Commuting Purchased Electricity Other Stationary Combustion Mobile Other Stationary Combustion Stationary Combustion
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 5,534 16,019 26,059 0 1,148 0 18,993
2007 5,835 15,328 27,138 0 1,160 0 19,143
2008 6,031 14,638 27,655 0 1,179 0 21,007
2009 6,450 13,947 29,013 0 1,211 0 20,840
2010 6,434 13,256 28,198 0 1,211 0 21,782
2011 5,881 12,164 29,442 0 1,157 0 23,171
2012 6,262 12,903 28,523 51 1,389 51 21,661
2013 6,764 11,728 27,902 191 1,234 191 19,563
2014 5,781 9,570 25,362 122 1,331 122 15,949
2015 5,512 11,540 26,774 122 1,495 122 15,307
2016 5,854 11,663 23,823 48 1,517 48 17,445
2017 5,336 11,508 21,458 0 1,183 0 18,098
2018 6,021 12,377 20,903 84 1,348 84 19,152
2019 4,589 11,207 20,104 125 1,379 125 19,523
2020 791 3,928 8,237 81 968 81 16,437
2021 1,300 5,146 303 62 944 62 17,107
2022 2,273 11,315 193 110 1,087 110 16,867
2023 4,247 10,222 229 85 1,076 85 17,854
2024 4,289 10,324 309 86 1,086 86 17,941
2025 4,332 10,427 304 86 1,097 86 17,941
2026 4,376 10,532 299 86 1,108 86 17,941
2027 4,419 10,637 812 92 1,119 92 18,408
2028 4,464 10,743 1,105 96 1,131 96 18,683
2029 4,508 10,851 4,625 103 1,142 103 21,790
2030 4,553 10,959 5,231 108 1,153 108 22,605
2031 4,599 11,069 5,574 109 1,165 109 23,203
2032 4,645 11,180 5,635 110 1,177 110 23,232
2033 4,691 11,291 5,635 110 1,188 110 23,232
2034 4,738 11,404 5,635 110 1,200 110 23,232
2035 4,786 11,518 5,635 110 1,212 110 23,232
2036 4,833 11,634 5,635 110 1,224 110 23,232
2037 4,882 11,750 5,635 110 1,237 110 23,232
2038 4,931 11,867 5,635 110 1,249 110 23,232
2039 4,980 11,986 5,635 110 1,261 110 23,232
2040 5,030 12,106 5,635 110 1,274 110 23,232
2041 5,080 12,227 5,635 110 1,287 110 23,232
2042 5,131 12,349 5,635 110 1,300 110 23,232
2043 5,182 12,473 5,635 110 1,313 110 23,232
2044 5,234 12,598 5,635 110 1,326 110 23,232
2045 5,286 12,723 5,635 110 1,339 110 23,232
2046 5,339 12,851 5,635 110 1,352 110 23,232
2047 5,393 12,979 5,635 110 1,366 110 23,232
2048 5,446 13,109 5,635 110 1,380 110 23,232
2049 5,501 13,240 5,635 110 1,393 110 23,232
2050 5,556 13,373 5,635 110 1,407 110 23,232
....
-- BAU
-- GHG Reduction Goal
-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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Year BAU Portfolio_2
MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 67,752 67,752
2007 68,604 68,604
2008 70,509 70,509
2009 71,462 71,462
2010 70,881 70,881
2011 73,256 73,256
2012 69,765 69,765
2013 66,511 66,511
2014 58,125 58,125
2015 61,827 61,827
2016 59,003 59,003
2017 56,201 56,201
2018 58,456 58,456
2019 55,646 55,646
2020 29,220 29,220
2021 23,543 23,543
2022 30,756 30,756
2023 32,565 32,565
2024 34,299 31,654
2025 34,450 30,955
2026 34,604 26,667
2027 35,770 25,174
2028 36,516 24,832
2029 43,333 21,306
2030 44,940 20,505
2031 46,052 21,697
2032 46,314 21,297
2033 46,484 20,686
2034 46,656 20,194
2035 46,829 19,694
2036 47,004 16,503
2037 47,181 16,014
2038 47,360 15,540
2039 47,540 15,086
2040 47,723 14,652
2041 47,907 11,608
2042 48,093 11,232
2043 48,281 10,879
2044 48,470 10,548
2045 48,662 -0
2046 48,855 -0
2047 49,051 -0
2048 49,248 0
2049 49,447 0
2050 49,651 0
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--Offsets
--Scope 3
--Scope 2
--Scope 1
--GHG Reduction Goal
--Reference Case
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Year Offsets Scope 3 Scope 2 Scope 1 GHG Reduction Goal
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 0 21,552 26,059 20,141 0
2007 0 21,164 27,138 20,303 0
2008 0 20,668 27,655 22,186 0
2009 0 20,397 29,013 22,051 0
2010 0 19,690 28,198 22,993 0
2011 0 19,420 29,442 24,394 0
2012 -1,334 19,465 28,523 23,111 0
2013 -940 18,492 27,902 21,057 0
2014 0 15,351 25,362 17,412 0
2015 -1,238 19,323 26,774 16,968 0
2016 -1,389 17,517 23,823 19,052 0
2017 -1,444 16,844 21,458 19,343 0
2018 -1,531 18,398 20,903 20,686 0
2019 -1,562 15,796 20,104 21,308 55,646
2020 -1,315 4,719 8,237 17,579 55,646
2021 -1,356 6,446 303 18,150 55,646
2022 -1,346 13,588 193 18,320 55,646
2023 -1,406 14,469 229 19,273 55,646
2024 0 14,614 309 19,376 54,016
2025 0 14,760 304 19,387 52,386
2026 0 14,907 299 19,398 50,755
2027 0 15,056 812 19,902 49,125
2028 0 15,207 1,105 20,204 47,495
2029 0 15,359 4,625 23,349 45,865
2030 0 15,513 5,231 24,196 44,234
2031 0 15,668 5,574 24,811 41,656
2032 0 15,825 5,635 24,854 39,078
2033 0 15,983 5,635 24,866 36,500
2034 0 16,143 5,635 24,878 33,922
2035 0 16,304 5,635 24,890 31,344
2036 0 16,467 5,635 24,902 28,766
2037 0 16,632 5,635 24,914 26,188
2038 0 16,798 5,635 24,927 23,611
2039 0 16,966 5,635 24,939 21,033
2040 0 17,136 5,635 24,952 18,455
2041 0 17,307 5,635 24,964 15,877
2042 0 17,480 5,635 24,977 13,299
2043 0 17,655 5,635 24,990 10,721
2044 0 17,831 5,635 25,003 8,143
2045 0 18,010 5,635 25,017 5,720
2046 0 18,190 5,635 25,030 5,720
2047 0 18,372 5,635 25,044 5,720
2048 0 18,556 5,635 25,057 5,720
2049 0 18,741 5,635 25,071 5,720
2050 0 18,928 5,636 25,086 5,720

Solution Comparison

This diagram shows the Levelized-cost of GHG Abatement for each solutions that have been modeled for your institution. All solutions shown save carbon emissions relative to the Business-as-usual Reference Case. Those is green save money per ton of carbon emissions abated, while those in red cost money per ton of abatement. The vertical dimension of each red or green colored block indicates the scale of average annual abatement estimated. The horizontal dimension corresponds to associated savings or costs. All other considerations aside, a rational investor would consider solutions in the upper left section of this diagram first for implementation before considering those in the lower right.

Costs 1
Savings 1
Average Annual GHG
Reduction Potential 2

1 per metric ton of carbon emissions avoided
2 in metric tons of carbon emissions

Solution Portfolios

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-- BAU
-- Current Portfolio
-- GHG Reduction Goal
--High Performance New Electric Bu...
--Funded Energy Efficiency Projects
--HDAE Energy Efficiency Projects
--Fleet Electrification
--FM Energy Efficiency Projects
--UC Wholesale Power Program
--Central Plant with ASHP and Ther...
--AB 32 Compliance Offsets
--Air Travel Mitigation
--Greening of the Commuter Fleet
--On Campus Housing
--Vanpool Expansion
--Remaining Emissions
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Cost Comparison

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-- CAPEX
-- Commodities
-- Operations and Maintenance
-- Social Cost of Carbon
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-- Cashflow
-- Social Cost of Carbon
-- Operations and Maintenance
-- Natural Gas
-- Grid Electricity
-- Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased)
-- Mobile Fuels
-- Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon
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Cost of Utility Services
History Forecast
Item 2023 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049
Social Cost of Carbon $8,679,550 $8,894,599 $12,106,053 $14,041,570 $15,413,582 $16,929,557 $18,605,637
Operations and Maintenance $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Natural Gas $4,488,843 $4,623,528 $6,353,145 $7,663,867 $8,670,962 $9,810,397 $11,099,564
Grid Electricity $136,944 $208,831 $3,797,990 $5,339,402 $5,953,154 $6,637,455 $7,400,415
Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Mobile Fuels $723,825 $763,232 $994,909 $1,296,963 $1,690,783 $2,204,261 $2,873,767
Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon $25,487,684 $26,344,712 $39,107,916 $47,213,702 $52,779,880 $59,065,562 $66,178,442
Total Cost of Energy $16,808,135 $17,450,113 $27,001,862 $33,172,131 $37,366,297 $42,136,005 $47,572,805
Item 2023 2024 - 2028 2029 - 2033 2034 - 2038 2039 - 2043 2044 - 2048 2049 - 2053
CAPEX $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Year Cashflow Social Cost of Carbon Operations and Maintenance Natural Gas Grid Electricity Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) Mobile Fuels Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon
Cashflow Social Cost of Carbon Operations and Maintenance Natural Gas Grid Electricity Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) Mobile Fuels Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon
2006 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2007 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2008 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2009 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2010 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2011 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2012 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2013 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2014 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2015 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2016 $11,898,593 $0 $0 $2,452,755 $9,445,838 $0 $0 $11,898,593
2017 $12,944,349 $0 $0 $3,279,956 $9,664,392 $0 $0 $12,944,349
2018 $12,332,512 $0 $0 $2,511,712 $9,820,800 $0 $0 $12,332,512
2019 $13,136,785 $0 $0 $2,589,601 $9,777,055 $0 $770,129 $13,136,785
2020 $11,903,037 $0 $0 $2,220,261 $4,583,781 $0 $493,664 $11,903,037
2021 $13,207,631 $6,174,952 $0 $2,885,011 $155,790 $0 $539,010 $19,382,583
2022 $14,666,081 $8,080,616 $0 $2,923,802 $110,652 $0 $657,380 $22,746,697
2023 $16,808,135 $8,679,550 $0 $4,488,843 $136,944 $0 $723,825 $25,487,684
2024 $17,450,113 $8,894,599 $0 $4,623,528 $208,831 $0 $763,232 $26,344,712
2025 $17,873,560 $9,067,962 $0 $4,739,116 $213,426 $0 $804,786 $26,941,521
2026 $18,308,059 $9,244,967 $0 $4,857,594 $218,121 $0 $848,604 $27,553,026
2027 $20,248,100 $9,700,002 $0 $5,108,553 $616,540 $0 $894,809 $29,948,102
2028 $21,650,598 $10,050,773 $0 $5,314,488 $872,527 $0 $943,532 $31,701,371
2029 $27,001,862 $12,106,053 $0 $6,353,145 $3,797,990 $0 $994,909 $39,107,916
2030 $29,261,609 $12,743,088 $0 $6,755,558 $4,465,927 $0 $1,049,086 $42,004,697
2031 $30,737,657 $13,254,533 $0 $7,107,686 $4,947,323 $0 $1,106,214 $43,992,190
2032 $31,637,934 $13,529,788 $0 $7,294,579 $5,112,000 $0 $1,166,455 $45,167,722
2033 $32,395,359 $13,783,145 $0 $7,476,943 $5,224,464 $0 $1,229,978 $46,178,504
2034 $33,172,131 $14,041,570 $0 $7,663,867 $5,339,402 $0 $1,296,963 $47,213,702
2035 $33,968,805 $14,305,172 $0 $7,855,463 $5,456,869 $0 $1,367,598 $48,273,977
2036 $34,785,955 $14,574,060 $0 $8,051,850 $5,576,920 $0 $1,442,082 $49,360,015
2037 $35,624,174 $14,848,347 $0 $8,253,146 $5,699,612 $0 $1,520,624 $50,472,521
2038 $36,484,077 $15,128,148 $0 $8,459,475 $5,825,004 $0 $1,603,447 $51,612,225
2039 $37,366,297 $15,413,582 $0 $8,670,962 $5,953,154 $0 $1,690,783 $52,779,880
2040 $38,271,493 $15,704,769 $0 $8,887,736 $6,084,123 $0 $1,782,879 $53,976,263
2041 $39,200,345 $16,001,833 $0 $9,109,929 $6,217,974 $0 $1,879,993 $55,202,179
2042 $40,153,558 $16,304,899 $0 $9,337,677 $6,354,769 $0 $1,982,400 $56,458,457
2043 $41,131,859 $16,614,097 $0 $9,571,119 $6,494,574 $0 $2,090,388 $57,745,956
2044 $42,136,005 $16,929,557 $0 $9,810,397 $6,637,455 $0 $2,204,261 $59,065,562
2045 $43,166,778 $17,251,416 $0 $10,055,657 $6,783,479 $0 $2,324,340 $60,418,194
2046 $44,224,989 $17,579,811 $0 $10,307,049 $6,932,715 $0 $2,450,963 $61,804,799
2047 $45,311,477 $17,914,883 $0 $10,564,725 $7,085,235 $0 $2,584,488 $63,226,360
2048 $46,427,115 $18,256,775 $0 $10,828,843 $7,241,110 $0 $2,725,291 $64,683,891
2049 $47,572,805 $18,605,637 $0 $11,099,564 $7,400,415 $0 $2,873,767 $66,178,442
2050 $48,749,485 $18,962,382 $0 $11,377,053 $7,563,224 $0 $3,030,337 $67,711,867
....
-- Cumulative Capital
-- Cumulative Savings
-- Cumulative Savings w/Carbon
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-- CAPEX
-- Commodities
-- Operations and Maintenance
-- Social Cost of Carbon
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Cost of Utility Services
History Forecast
Item 2023 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049
Social Cost of Carbon $8,679,550 $8,208,863 $5,952,232 $6,077,701 $4,891,072 $3,684,025 $2,522,606
Operations and Maintenance $0 $150,210 $351,260 $152,310 $153,360 $154,410 $155,460
Natural Gas $4,488,843 $4,257,601 $2,919,133 $3,021,716 $2,315,962 $1,452,340 $393,307
Grid Electricity $136,944 $191,382 $6,251,291 $9,542,824 $9,995,626 $10,426,435 $10,824,214
Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Mobile Fuels $723,825 $763,232 $894,909 $1,196,963 $1,590,783 $2,104,261 $2,773,767
Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon $25,487,684 $26,631,411 $37,192,867 $40,900,838 $42,953,767 $45,372,103 $48,271,610
Total Cost of Energy $16,808,135 $17,216,946 $27,420,116 $34,151,137 $37,390,695 $41,016,078 $45,077,004
Item 2023 2024 - 2028 2029 - 2033 2034 - 2038 2039 - 2043 2044 - 2048 2049 - 2053
CAPEX $43,735,387 $557,376 $146,067,523 $82,295,360 $106,431,612 $1,344,000

Resource Consumption

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-- BAU
-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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-- BAU
-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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-- BAU
-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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