Fovea:CAPTM - Report
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Barbara

A viable path towards achieving UCSB's published GHG emission goals

Emissions Forecast and Reduction Goals

  • 612,377
    MTCO2e    cumulative abatement to meet goals for 2022 to 2050
  • $351 millionNPV forecasted energy spending 2022 - 2050
    2022: $ 15 million
    2050: $ 34 million
....
--Offsets
--Scope 3
--Scope 2
--Scope 1
--Net Emissions
--GHG Reduction Goal
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Year Offsets Scope 3 Scope 2 Scope 1 Net Emissions GHG Reduction Goal
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 0 21,552 26,059 20,141 67,752 67,752
2007 0 21,164 27,138 20,303 68,604 68,604
2008 0 20,668 27,655 22,186 70,509 70,509
2009 0 20,397 29,013 22,051 71,462 71,462
2010 0 19,690 28,198 22,993 70,881 70,881
2011 0 20,102 29,442 24,394 73,938 73,938
2012 -1,334 18,344 28,523 23,111 68,645 68,645
2013 -940 19,065 27,902 21,057 67,084 67,084
2014 0 18,492 25,362 17,412 61,266 61,266
2015 -1,238 17,622 26,774 16,968 60,126 60,126
2016 -1,389 17,052 23,823 19,052 58,538 58,538
2017 -1,444 17,517 21,458 19,343 56,874 56,874
2018 -1,531 16,844 20,903 20,686 56,902 56,902
2019 -1,562 18,578 20,104 21,308 58,428 58,428
2020 -1,315 15,796 8,237 17,579 40,297 40,297
2021 -1,356 4,719 303 18,150 21,816 21,816
2022 0 8,579 260 18,103 26,942 26,942
2023 0 17,158 256 18,153 35,566 35,566
2024 0 17,338 251 18,162 35,752 35,752
2025 0 17,521 247 18,172 35,939 35,939
2026 0 17,704 243 19,133 37,080 17,704
2027 0 17,884 239 19,635 37,757 17,884
2028 0 17,884 235 20,780 38,898 17,884
2029 0 17,884 231 20,780 38,894 17,884
2030 0 17,884 227 20,810 38,920 17,884
2031 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2032 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2033 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2034 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2035 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2036 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2037 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2038 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2039 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2040 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2041 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2042 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2043 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2044 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2045 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2046 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 0
2047 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 0
2048 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 0
2049 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 0
2050 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 0
....
-- Stationary Combustion
-- Other Stationary Combustion
-- Mobile
-- Other Stationary Combustion
-- Purchased Electricity
-- Commuting
-- Air Travel
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Year Stationary Combustion Other Stationary Combustion Mobile Other Stationary Combustion Purchased Electricity Commuting Air Travel
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 18,993 0 1,148 0 26,059 16,019 5,534
2007 19,143 0 1,160 0 27,138 15,328 5,835
2008 21,007 0 1,179 0 27,655 14,638 6,031
2009 20,840 0 1,211 0 29,013 13,947 6,450
2010 21,782 0 1,211 0 28,198 13,256 6,434
2011 23,171 0 1,157 0 29,442 12,566 6,161
2012 21,661 51 1,389 51 28,523 12,163 5,881
2013 19,563 191 1,234 191 27,902 12,803 6,262
2014 15,949 122 1,331 122 25,362 11,728 6,764
2015 15,307 122 1,495 122 26,774 9,570 5,781
2016 17,445 48 1,517 48 23,823 11,540 5,512
2017 18,098 0 1,183 0 21,458 11,663 5,854
2018 19,152 84 1,348 84 20,903 11,508 5,336
2019 19,523 125 1,379 125 20,104 12,557 6,021
2020 16,437 81 968 81 8,237 11,207 4,589
2021 17,107 62 944 62 303 3,928 791
2022 17,083 89 894 89 260 5,847 2,731
2023 17,123 89 903 89 256 11,695 5,463
2024 17,123 89 913 89 251 11,818 5,520
2025 17,123 89 922 89 247 11,943 5,578
2026 18,069 89 932 89 243 12,068 5,637
2027 18,561 89 941 89 239 12,190 5,694
2028 19,704 89 941 89 235 12,190 5,694
2029 19,704 89 941 89 231 12,190 5,694
2030 19,734 89 941 89 227 12,190 5,694
2031 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2032 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2033 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2034 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2035 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2036 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2037 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2038 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2039 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2040 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2041 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2042 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2043 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2044 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2045 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2046 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2047 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2048 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2049 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
2050 19,734 89 941 89 223 12,190 5,694
....
-- BAU
-- GHG Reduction Goal
-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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Year BAU Portfolio_4
MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 67,752 67,752
2007 68,604 68,604
2008 70,509 70,509
2009 71,462 71,462
2010 70,881 70,881
2011 73,938 73,938
2012 68,645 68,645
2013 67,084 67,084
2014 61,266 61,266
2015 60,126 60,126
2016 58,538 58,538
2017 56,874 56,874
2018 56,902 56,902
2019 58,428 58,428
2020 40,297 40,297
2021 21,816 21,816
2022 26,942 25,225
2023 35,566 31,275
2024 35,752 28,213
2025 35,939 23,036
2026 37,080 17,704
2027 37,757 17,884
2028 38,898 16,208
2029 38,894 14,269
2030 38,920 9,835
2031 38,916 10,499
2032 38,916 9,835
2033 38,916 9,273
2034 38,916 8,696
2035 38,916 8,112
2036 38,916 7,550
2037 38,916 7,015
2038 38,916 6,507
2039 38,916 6,025
2040 38,916 5,569
2041 38,916 5,139
2042 38,916 4,735
2043 38,916 4,356
2044 38,916 4,000
2045 38,916 3,667
2046 38,916 -0
2047 38,916 -0
2048 38,916 -0
2049 38,916 -0
2050 38,916 -0
....
--Offsets
--Scope 3
--Scope 2
--Scope 1
--Net Emissions
--GHG Reduction Goal
--Reference Case
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Year Offsets Scope 3 Scope 2 Scope 1 Net Emissions GHG Reduction Goal
MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e MTCO2e
2006 0 21,552 26,059 20,141 67,752 67,752
2007 0 21,164 27,138 20,303 68,604 68,604
2008 0 20,668 27,655 22,186 70,509 70,509
2009 0 20,397 29,013 22,051 71,462 71,462
2010 0 19,690 28,198 22,993 70,881 70,881
2011 0 20,102 29,442 24,394 73,938 73,938
2012 -1,334 18,344 28,523 23,111 68,645 68,645
2013 -940 19,065 27,902 21,057 67,084 67,084
2014 0 18,492 25,362 17,412 61,266 61,266
2015 -1,238 17,622 26,774 16,968 60,126 60,126
2016 -1,389 17,052 23,823 19,052 58,538 58,538
2017 -1,444 17,517 21,458 19,343 56,874 56,874
2018 -1,531 16,844 20,903 20,686 56,902 56,902
2019 -1,562 18,578 20,104 21,308 58,428 58,428
2020 -1,315 15,796 8,237 17,579 40,297 40,297
2021 -1,356 4,719 303 18,150 21,816 21,816
2022 0 8,579 260 18,103 26,942 26,942
2023 0 17,158 256 18,153 35,566 35,566
2024 0 17,338 251 18,162 35,752 35,752
2025 0 17,521 247 18,172 35,939 35,939
2026 0 17,704 243 19,133 37,080 17,704
2027 0 17,884 239 19,635 37,757 17,884
2028 0 17,884 235 20,780 38,898 17,884
2029 0 17,884 231 20,780 38,894 17,884
2030 0 17,884 227 20,810 38,920 17,884
2031 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2032 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2033 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2034 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2035 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2036 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2037 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2038 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2039 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2040 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2041 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2042 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2043 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2044 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2045 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 17,884
2046 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 0
2047 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 0
2048 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 0
2049 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 0
2050 0 17,884 223 20,810 38,916 0

Solution Comparison

This diagram shows the Levelized-cost of GHG Abatement for each solutions that have been modeled for your institution. All solutions shown save carbon emissions relative to the Business-as-usual Reference Case. Those is green save money per ton of carbon emissions abated, while those in red cost money per ton of abatement. The vertical dimension of each red or green colored block indicates the scale of average annual abatement estimated. The horizontal dimension corresponds to associated savings or costs. All other considerations aside, a rational investor would consider solutions in the upper left section of this diagram first for implementation before considering those in the lower right.

Costs 1
Savings 1
Average Annual GHG
Reduction Potential 2

1 per metric ton of carbon emissions avoided
2 in metric tons of carbon emissions

Solutions List

Solutions Name Net CAPEX Net Commodity Costs Net O&M Cash Flows Avg. GHG Impact % of Avg
Forecasted GHG		 Levelized Cost
of GHG Abatement
$millions $millions $millions $millions MTCO2e / yr % of MTCO2e $/MTCO2e
Avoid: Fleet Management
Commuting Emissions Mitigation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -1,495 -3.9% $0
Air Travel Mitigation $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -499 -1.3% $0
Greening of the Commuter Fleet $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -5,413 -14.2% $0
Avoid: High performance new buildings
High Performance New Electric Buildings $-21.69 $53.17 $0.00 $31.48 -2,180 -5.7% $1052.22
Reduce: Energy Conservation
Energy Conservation $0.00 $-5.54 $2.38 $-3.16 -1,521 -4.0% $-132.71
Reduce: Energy Efficiency
Funded Energy Efficiency Projects $8.82 $-8.30 $0.00 $0.52 -976 -2.6% $34.15
HDAE Energy Efficiency Projects $3.14 $-8.42 $0.00 $-5.28 -153 -0.4% $-2921.11
FM Energy Efficiency Projects $5.89 $-20.75 $2.09 $-12.78 -2,769 -6.8% $-366.35
REI Heat Pump Project $0.08 $0.00 $0.00 $0.08 -21 -0.1% $240.73
Replace: On-Campus Renewables
Onsite Solar PV $0.00 $-0.98 $0.00 $-0.98 0 0.0% n/a
Student Affairs Renewable Energy Initiative (Solar) $0.10 $-0.16 $0.00 $-0.06 0 0.0% n/a
MW Onsite Solar PV $0.00 $-3.87 $0.00 $-3.87 -1,813 -4.8% $-131.06
Solar-supplied Heat Pump $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 -1 -0.0% $383.86
Director`s Residence - battery and inverter replacement $0.01 $-0.02 $0.00 $-0.01 0 0.0% n/a
Replace: UC Biomethane
UCOP: Biomethane Contracts $0.00 $6.08 $0.00 $6.08 -5,169 -12.2% $96.06
Replace: UC Renewable PPAs
UC Wholesale Power Program $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -5 -0.0% $0
UC Wholesale Power Program (B) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -5 -0.0% $0
Offset: UC-developed offsets
AB 32 Compliance Offsets $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -309 -0.8% $0
Offset: Voluntary offsets
Carbon Offsets Commuter Program $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -4,526 -11.9% $0
Air Travel Offsets $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -5,052 -12.8% $0

Solution Portfolios

....
-- BAU
-- Current Portfolio
-- GHG Reduction Goal
--High Performance New Electric Bu...
--REI Heat Pump Project
--HDAE Energy Efficiency Projects
--Funded Energy Efficiency Projects
--Onsite Solar PV
--FM Energy Efficiency Projects
--UCOP: Biomethane Contracts
--Student Affairs Renewable Energy...
--Solar-supplied Heat Pump
--AB 32 Compliance Offsets
--Director`s Residence - battery a...
--Commuting Emissions Mitigation
--Carbon Offsets Commuter Program
--Air Travel Mitigation
--Air Travel Offsets
--Greening of the Commuter Fleet
--Carbon Offsets
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Cost Comparison

....
-- CAPEX
-- Commodities
-- Operations and Maintenance
-- Purchased Offsets
-- Social Cost of Carbon
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-- Cashflow
-- Social Cost of Carbon
-- Operations and Maintenance
-- Natural Gas
-- Grid Electricity
-- Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased)
-- Mobile Fuels
-- Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon
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Cost of Utility Services
History Forecast
Item 2021 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Social Cost of Carbon $5,746,656 $6,781,758 $10,238,819 $11,368,675 $12,247,292 $13,193,812 $14,213,482
Operations and Maintenance $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Natural Gas $2,885,011 $2,957,326 $3,634,280 $4,372,279 $4,946,832 $5,596,886 $6,332,363
Grid Electricity $155,790 $159,217 $177,519 $197,924 $220,675 $246,042 $274,323
Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Mobile Fuels $545,318 $575,375 $751,857 $932,756 $1,157,246 $1,435,840 $1,781,591
Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon $18,966,933 $21,407,224 $29,877,785 $34,581,616 $38,344,997 $42,550,184 $48,669,368
Total Cost of Energy $13,220,277 $14,625,466 $19,638,966 $23,212,941 $26,097,705 $29,356,372 $34,455,886
Item 2021 2022 - 2026 2027 - 2031 2032 - 2036 2037 - 2041 2042 - 2046 2047 - 2051
CAPEX $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Year Cashflow Social Cost of Carbon Operations and Maintenance Natural Gas Grid Electricity Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) Mobile Fuels Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon
Cashflow Social Cost of Carbon Operations and Maintenance Natural Gas Grid Electricity Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) Mobile Fuels Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon
2006 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2007 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2008 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2009 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2010 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2011 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2012 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2013 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2014 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2015 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
2016 $11,898,593 $0 $0 $2,452,755 $9,445,838 $0 $0 $11,898,593
2017 $12,944,349 $0 $0 $3,279,956 $9,664,392 $0 $0 $12,944,349
2018 $12,332,512 $0 $0 $2,511,712 $9,820,800 $0 $0 $12,332,512
2019 $13,136,785 $0 $0 $2,589,601 $9,777,055 $0 $770,129 $13,136,785
2020 $12,225,716 $0 $0 $2,220,261 $4,583,781 $0 $816,344 $12,225,716
2021 $13,220,277 $5,746,656 $0 $2,885,011 $155,790 $0 $545,318 $18,966,933
2022 $14,625,466 $6,781,758 $0 $2,957,326 $159,217 $0 $575,375 $21,407,224
2023 $15,092,200 $9,086,900 $0 $3,038,268 $162,720 $0 $607,071 $24,179,100
2024 $15,454,225 $9,271,467 $0 $3,114,225 $166,300 $0 $640,494 $24,725,692
2025 $15,825,565 $9,459,923 $0 $3,192,081 $169,959 $0 $675,739 $25,285,488
2026 $18,846,286 $9,906,625 $0 $3,451,505 $173,698 $0 $712,902 $28,752,911
2027 $19,638,966 $10,238,819 $0 $3,634,280 $177,519 $0 $751,857 $29,877,785
2028 $20,832,697 $10,706,386 $0 $3,955,178 $181,424 $0 $784,982 $31,539,084
2029 $21,427,041 $10,865,868 $0 $4,054,058 $185,416 $0 $819,568 $32,292,909
2030 $22,153,622 $11,036,231 $0 $4,161,598 $189,495 $0 $855,681 $33,189,852
2031 $22,676,780 $11,200,665 $0 $4,265,638 $193,664 $0 $893,387 $33,877,445
2032 $23,212,941 $11,368,675 $0 $4,372,279 $197,924 $0 $932,756 $34,581,616
2033 $23,762,236 $11,539,205 $0 $4,481,586 $202,279 $0 $973,862 $35,301,441
2034 $24,325,005 $11,712,293 $0 $4,593,625 $206,729 $0 $1,016,783 $36,037,298
2035 $24,901,598 $11,887,978 $0 $4,708,466 $211,277 $0 $1,061,597 $36,789,575
2036 $25,492,375 $12,066,297 $0 $4,826,178 $215,925 $0 $1,108,389 $37,558,672
2037 $26,097,705 $12,247,292 $0 $4,946,832 $220,675 $0 $1,157,246 $38,344,997
2038 $26,717,971 $12,431,001 $0 $5,070,503 $225,530 $0 $1,208,259 $39,148,972
2039 $27,353,561 $12,617,466 $0 $5,197,265 $230,492 $0 $1,261,523 $39,971,028
2040 $28,004,881 $12,806,728 $0 $5,327,197 $235,563 $0 $1,317,138 $40,811,609
2041 $28,672,342 $12,998,829 $0 $5,460,377 $240,745 $0 $1,375,208 $41,671,171
2042 $29,356,372 $13,193,812 $0 $5,596,886 $246,042 $0 $1,435,840 $42,550,184
2043 $30,057,408 $13,391,719 $0 $5,736,809 $251,454 $0 $1,499,149 $43,449,127
2044 $30,775,902 $13,592,594 $0 $5,880,229 $256,986 $0 $1,565,253 $44,368,496
2045 $31,512,317 $13,796,483 $0 $6,027,234 $262,640 $0 $1,634,274 $45,308,800
2046 $33,647,669 $14,003,431 $0 $6,177,915 $268,418 $0 $1,706,342 $47,651,099
2047 $34,455,886 $14,213,482 $0 $6,332,363 $274,323 $0 $1,781,591 $48,669,368
2048 $35,284,362 $14,426,684 $0 $6,490,672 $280,359 $0 $1,860,162 $49,711,046
2049 $36,133,638 $14,643,085 $0 $6,652,939 $286,526 $0 $1,942,202 $50,776,723
2050 $37,004,273 $14,862,731 $0 $6,819,263 $292,830 $0 $2,027,863 $51,867,004
....
-- Cumulative Capital
-- Cumulative Savings
-- Cumulative Savings w/Carbon
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-- CAPEX
-- Commodities
-- Operations and Maintenance
-- Purchased Offsets
-- Social Cost of Carbon
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Cost of Utility Services
History Forecast
Item 2021 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Social Cost of Carbon $5,746,656 $6,349,635 $4,949,869 $2,873,252 $2,207,747 $1,605,375 $1,119,408
Operations and Maintenance $0 $0 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000
Natural Gas $2,885,011 $2,880,011 $2,798,931 $3,021,075 $3,317,184 $3,639,778 $3,989,874
Grid Electricity $155,790 $84,280 $2,896,584 $3,405,818 $3,201,719 $2,904,746 $2,496,245
Renewable Energy Credits (Purchased) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Mobile Fuels $545,318 $575,375 $751,857 $932,756 $1,157,246 $1,435,840 $1,781,591
Cashflow w/ Cost of Carbon $18,966,933 $21,313,929 $27,905,071 $28,142,856 $29,739,831 $31,610,796 $34,075,332
Total Cost of Energy $13,220,277 $14,473,214 $21,227,651 $24,597,603 $26,860,083 $29,333,421 $32,283,924
Item 2021 2022 - 2026 2027 - 2031 2032 - 2036 2037 - 2041 2042 - 2046 2047 - 2051
CAPEX $-18,327,565 $7,101,946 $3,360,000 $3,360,000 $3,360,000 $2,688,000

Resource Consumption

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-- BAU
-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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-- Recommended Portfolio w/ Scope 3
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