Emissions Forecast and Reduction Goals
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Business as usual forecast: The Forecast to the right of gray-shaded Historical is business as usual scope 1 and scope 2 MTCO2e, without any interceding solutions, from the first year of the Forecast thru 2040. The black dashed line is the MTCO2e goal, as it culminates to 0 in 2025.
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472,204
tCO2ecumulative abatement to meet goals for 2021 to 2040 -
$216 millionNPV forecasted energy spending 2021 - 2040
2021: $ 13 million
2040: $ 22 million
Year | Purchased Offsets | Scope 1 Emissions | Scope 2 Emissions | Total GHG Emissions | GHG Reduction Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
MTCO2e | MTCO2e | MTCO2e | MTCO2e | MTCO2e | |
2005 | 0 | 20,151 | 26,059 | 46,210 | 46,210 |
2006 | 0 | 20,313 | 27,138 | 47,450 | 47,450 |
2007 | 0 | 22,196 | 27,655 | 49,851 | 49,851 |
2008 | 0 | 22,061 | 29,013 | 51,074 | 51,074 |
2009 | 0 | 23,003 | 28,198 | 51,201 | 51,201 |
2010 | 0 | 23,581 | 29,425 | 53,006 | 53,006 |
2011 | -1,334 | 24,467 | 28,726 | 51,860 | 51,860 |
2012 | -940 | 22,759 | 28,746 | 50,565 | 50,565 |
2013 | 0 | 21,364 | 27,902 | 49,266 | 49,266 |
2014 | 0 | 17,580 | 25,362 | 42,942 | 42,942 |
2015 | -1,238 | 16,737 | 26,774 | 42,273 | 42,273 |
2016 | -1,389 | 19,327 | 23,823 | 41,761 | 41,761 |
2017 | -1,444 | 19,344 | 21,458 | 39,358 | 39,358 |
2018 | -1,531 | 20,686 | 20,903 | 40,058 | 40,058 |
2019 | -1,562 | 21,308 | 20,104 | 39,850 | 39,850 |
2020 | -1,317 | 18,346 | 8,255 | 25,284 | 25,284 |
2021 | 0 | 20,726 | 8,989 | 29,714 | 29,714 |
2022 | 0 | 20,737 | 8,839 | 29,576 | 29,576 |
2023 | 0 | 20,787 | 8,782 | 29,570 | 29,570 |
2024 | 0 | 20,935 | 9,326 | 30,261 | 30,261 |
2025 | 0 | 20,945 | 9,168 | 30,112 | 0 |
2026 | 0 | 20,954 | 9,012 | 29,966 | 0 |
2027 | 0 | 20,954 | 8,859 | 29,813 | 0 |
2028 | 0 | 20,960 | 8,708 | 29,668 | 0 |
2029 | 0 | 20,960 | 8,560 | 29,520 | 0 |
2030 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2031 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2032 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2033 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2034 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2035 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2036 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2037 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2038 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2039 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2040 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
Year | Purchased Offsets | Stationary Combustion | Mobile Fuel | Purchased Electricity, CA |
---|---|---|---|---|
MTCO2e | MTCO2e | MTCO2e | MTCO2e | |
2005 | 0 | 18,993 | 1,148 | 26,059 |
2006 | 0 | 19,143 | 1,160 | 27,138 |
2007 | 0 | 21,007 | 1,179 | 27,655 |
2008 | 0 | 20,840 | 1,211 | 29,013 |
2009 | 0 | 21,782 | 1,211 | 28,198 |
2010 | 0 | 22,359 | 1,211 | 29,425 |
2011 | -1,334 | 23,234 | 1,157 | 28,726 |
2012 | -940 | 21,299 | 1,389 | 28,746 |
2013 | 0 | 19,870 | 1,234 | 27,902 |
2014 | 0 | 16,117 | 1,331 | 25,362 |
2015 | -1,238 | 15,076 | 1,495 | 26,774 |
2016 | -1,389 | 17,718 | 1,517 | 23,823 |
2017 | -1,444 | 18,098 | 1,183 | 21,458 |
2018 | -1,531 | 19,152 | 1,348 | 20,903 |
2019 | -1,562 | 19,523 | 1,379 | 20,104 |
2020 | -1,317 | 16,461 | 896 | 8,255 |
2021 | 0 | 19,720 | 912 | 8,989 |
2022 | 0 | 19,722 | 922 | 8,839 |
2023 | 0 | 19,762 | 932 | 8,782 |
2024 | 0 | 19,897 | 941 | 9,326 |
2025 | 0 | 19,897 | 951 | 9,168 |
2026 | 0 | 19,897 | 961 | 9,012 |
2027 | 0 | 19,897 | 961 | 8,859 |
2028 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,708 |
2029 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,560 |
2030 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
2031 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
2032 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
2033 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
2034 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
2035 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
2036 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
2037 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
2038 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
2039 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
2040 | 0 | 19,900 | 961 | 8,415 |
Year | BAU | Portfolio_1 |
---|---|---|
MTCO2e | MTCO2e | |
2005 | 46,210 | 46,210 |
2006 | 47,450 | 47,450 |
2007 | 49,851 | 49,851 |
2008 | 51,074 | 51,074 |
2009 | 51,201 | 51,201 |
2010 | 53,006 | 53,006 |
2011 | 51,860 | 51,860 |
2012 | 50,565 | 50,565 |
2013 | 49,266 | 49,266 |
2014 | 42,942 | 42,942 |
2015 | 42,273 | 42,273 |
2016 | 41,761 | 41,761 |
2017 | 39,358 | 39,358 |
2018 | 40,058 | 40,058 |
2019 | 39,850 | 39,850 |
2020 | 25,284 | 25,284 |
2021 | 29,714 | 23,067 |
2022 | 29,576 | 18,807 |
2023 | 29,570 | 18,075 |
2024 | 30,261 | 17,212 |
2025 | 30,112 | -0 |
2026 | 29,966 | 0 |
2027 | 29,813 | 0 |
2028 | 29,668 | -0 |
2029 | 29,520 | -0 |
2030 | 29,375 | 0 |
2031 | 29,375 | 0 |
2032 | 29,375 | 0 |
2033 | 29,375 | 0 |
2034 | 29,375 | 0 |
2035 | 29,375 | 0 |
2036 | 29,375 | 0 |
2037 | 29,375 | 0 |
2038 | 29,375 | 0 |
2039 | 29,375 | 0 |
2040 | 29,375 | 0 |
Year | Purchased Offsets | Scope 1 Emissions | Scope 2 Emissions | Total GHG Emissions | GHG Reduction Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
MTCO2e | MTCO2e | MTCO2e | MTCO2e | MTCO2e | |
2005 | 0 | 20,151 | 26,059 | 46,210 | 46,210 |
2006 | 0 | 20,313 | 27,138 | 47,450 | 47,450 |
2007 | 0 | 22,196 | 27,655 | 49,851 | 49,851 |
2008 | 0 | 22,061 | 29,013 | 51,074 | 51,074 |
2009 | 0 | 23,003 | 28,198 | 51,201 | 51,201 |
2010 | 0 | 23,581 | 29,425 | 53,006 | 53,006 |
2011 | -1,334 | 24,467 | 28,726 | 51,860 | 51,860 |
2012 | -940 | 22,759 | 28,746 | 50,565 | 50,565 |
2013 | 0 | 21,364 | 27,902 | 49,266 | 49,266 |
2014 | 0 | 17,580 | 25,362 | 42,942 | 42,942 |
2015 | -1,238 | 16,737 | 26,774 | 42,273 | 42,273 |
2016 | -1,389 | 19,327 | 23,823 | 41,761 | 41,761 |
2017 | -1,444 | 19,344 | 21,458 | 39,358 | 39,358 |
2018 | -1,531 | 20,686 | 20,903 | 40,058 | 40,058 |
2019 | -1,562 | 21,308 | 20,104 | 39,850 | 39,850 |
2020 | -1,317 | 18,346 | 8,255 | 25,284 | 25,284 |
2021 | 0 | 20,726 | 8,989 | 29,714 | 29,714 |
2022 | 0 | 20,737 | 8,839 | 29,576 | 29,576 |
2023 | 0 | 20,787 | 8,782 | 29,570 | 29,570 |
2024 | 0 | 20,935 | 9,326 | 30,261 | 30,261 |
2025 | 0 | 20,945 | 9,168 | 30,112 | 0 |
2026 | 0 | 20,954 | 9,012 | 29,966 | 0 |
2027 | 0 | 20,954 | 8,859 | 29,813 | 0 |
2028 | 0 | 20,960 | 8,708 | 29,668 | 0 |
2029 | 0 | 20,960 | 8,560 | 29,520 | 0 |
2030 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2031 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2032 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2033 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2034 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2035 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2036 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2037 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2038 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2039 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
2040 | 0 | 20,961 | 8,415 | 29,375 | 0 |
Solution Comparison
This diagram shows the Levelized-cost of GHG Abatement for each solutions that have been modeled for your institution. All solutions shown save carbon emissions relative to the Business-as-usual Reference Case. Those is green save money per ton of carbon emissions abated, while those in red cost money per ton of abatement. The vertical dimension of each red or green colored block indicates the scale of average annual abatement estimated. The horizontal dimension corresponds to associated savings or costs. All other considerations aside, a rational investor would consider solutions in the upper left section of this diagram first for implementation before considering those in the lower right.
Reduction Potential 2


1 per metric ton of carbon emissions avoided
2 in metric tons of carbon emissions
Solutions List
Solutions Name | Net CAPEX | Net Commodity Costs | Net O&M | Cash Flows | Avg. GHG Impact | % of Avg Forecasted GHG |
Levelized Cost of GHG Abatement |
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$millions | $millions | $millions | $millions | tCO2e / yr | % of tCO2e | $/tCO2e | |
Avoid: High performance new buildings | |||||||
High Performance New Electric Buildings | $2.92 | $7.68 | $0.00 | $10.59 | -869 | -2.9% | $1113.58 |
Reduce: Energy Efficiency | |||||||
Funded Energy Efficiency Projects | $1.51 | $-4.16 | $0.00 | $-2.64 | -506 | -1.7% | $-397.35 |
HDAE Energy Efficiency Projects | $2.63 | $-4.21 | $0.00 | $-1.58 | -570 | -1.9% | $-255.18 |
FM Energy Efficiency Projects | $5.52 | $-12.41 | $1.95 | $-4.93 | -3,358 | -11.4% | $-122.05 |
Replace: On-Campus Renewables | |||||||
Onsite Solar PV | $0.00 | $-0.78 | $0.00 | $-0.78 | -420 | -1.4% | $-150.06 |
Student Affairs Renewable Energy Initiative | $0.09 | $0.00 | $-0.08 | $0.00 | -10 | -0.0% | $10.87 |
Solar-supplied Heat Pump | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.01 | -1 | -0.0% | $466.38 |
Director`s Residence - battery and inverter replacement | $0.01 | $-0.01 | $0.00 | $-0.00 | -1 | -0.0% | $-8.55 |
Replace: UC Biomethane | |||||||
UCOP: Biomethane Contracts | $0.00 | $5.59 | $0.00 | $5.59 | -7,925 | -21.4% | $75.39 |
Replace: UC Renewable PPAs | |||||||
UC Wholesale Power Program | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -7,156 | -24.2% | $0 |
Offset: UC-developed offsets | |||||||
AB 32 Compliance Offsets | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | -523 | -1.8% | $0 |
Solution Portfolios
Cost Comparison
NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) Incremental to BAU |
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PORTFOLIO | DESCRIPTION | AVG GHG tCO2e / Yr |
CAPEX | ENERGY | OTHER OPEX |
OFFSETS | TOTAL | |
BAU | Business as Usual Reference Case | 30 k | $0 M | $216 M | $0 M | $2 M | $219 M | |
Recommended Portfolio | Working CAP (Energy Efficiency projects, 40% UC procured biogas, high performance new buildings and building electrification, Onsite solar, AB 32 compliance offsets, UC green power) | 4 k
-26 k
|
$12 M
$12 M
|
$208 M
$-8 M
|
$2 M
$2 M
|
$1 M
$-2 M
|
$223 M
$4 M
|
Cost of Utility Services | |||||
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History | Forecast | ||||
Item | 2020 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 |
Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) | $1,264,200 | $1,530,278 | $1,789,060 | $2,033,118 | $2,356,941 |
Non-Commodity O&M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Cost of Offsets to Goal | $0 | $0 | $239,728 | $235,000 | $235,000 |
Natural Gas Purchased Cost - Energy | $2,275,767 | $2,790,074 | $3,184,741 | $3,603,243 | $4,076,738 |
Electricity Purchased Cost - Energy | $9,391,340 | $9,597,949 | $11,370,319 | $12,900,516 | $14,383,400 |
Mobile Fuels | $545,318 | $575,375 | $751,857 | $932,756 | $1,157,246 |
Total Cash Flow + SCC | $13,488,174 | $14,505,740 | $17,351,197 | $19,724,596 | $22,234,158 |
Total Cost of Energy | $12,223,974 | $12,975,461 | $15,562,137 | $17,691,478 | $19,877,217 |
Item | 2020 | 2021 - 2025 | 2026 - 2030 | 2031 - 2035 | 2036 - 2040 |
Total CAPEX | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Year | Total Cash Flow (OPEX + CAPEX) | Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) | Non-Commodity O&M | Cost of Offsets to Goal | Natural Gas Purchased Cost - Energy | Electricity Purchased Cost - Energy | Mobile Fuels | Total Cash Flow + SCC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash Flow (OPEX + CAPEX) | Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) | Non-Commodity O&M | Cost of Offsets to Goal | Natural Gas Purchased Cost - Energy | Electricity Purchased Cost - Energy | Mobile Fuels | Total Cash Flow + SCC | |
2005 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
2006 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
2007 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
2008 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
2009 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
2010 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
2011 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
2012 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
2013 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
2014 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
2015 | $11,624,476 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,178,638 | $9,445,838 | $0 | $11,624,476 |
2016 | $12,828,218 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $3,163,826 | $9,664,392 | $0 | $12,828,218 |
2017 | $12,194,066 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,373,266 | $9,820,800 | $0 | $12,194,066 |
2018 | $13,070,722 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,511,712 | $9,777,055 | $770,129 | $13,070,722 |
2019 | $13,090,239 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2,654,341 | $9,609,900 | $816,344 | $13,090,239 |
2020 | $12,223,974 | $1,264,200 | $0 | $0 | $2,275,767 | $9,391,340 | $545,318 | $13,488,174 |
2021 | $12,975,461 | $1,530,278 | $0 | $0 | $2,790,074 | $9,597,949 | $575,375 | $14,505,740 |
2022 | $13,291,920 | $1,568,837 | $0 | $0 | $2,860,020 | $9,812,226 | $607,071 | $14,860,757 |
2023 | $13,722,580 | $1,615,571 | $0 | $0 | $2,937,391 | $10,131,400 | $640,494 | $15,338,150 |
2024 | $14,607,283 | $1,702,955 | $0 | $0 | $3,031,283 | $10,886,063 | $675,739 | $16,310,239 |
2025 | $15,201,251 | $1,745,426 | $0 | $240,896 | $3,107,065 | $11,125,556 | $712,902 | $16,946,677 |
2026 | $15,562,137 | $1,789,060 | $0 | $239,728 | $3,184,741 | $11,370,319 | $751,857 | $17,351,197 |
2027 | $15,924,494 | $1,833,311 | $0 | $238,504 | $3,264,360 | $11,620,466 | $784,982 | $17,757,805 |
2028 | $16,464,487 | $1,879,103 | $0 | $237,344 | $3,345,969 | $12,044,211 | $819,568 | $18,343,590 |
2029 | $16,848,813 | $1,925,819 | $0 | $236,160 | $3,429,618 | $12,309,183 | $855,681 | $18,774,631 |
2030 | $17,285,671 | $1,973,901 | $0 | $235,000 | $3,515,359 | $12,622,814 | $893,387 | $19,259,571 |
2031 | $17,691,478 | $2,033,118 | $0 | $235,000 | $3,603,243 | $12,900,516 | $932,756 | $19,724,596 |
2032 | $18,107,368 | $2,094,111 | $0 | $235,000 | $3,693,324 | $13,184,327 | $973,862 | $20,201,479 |
2033 | $18,533,607 | $2,156,935 | $0 | $235,000 | $3,785,657 | $13,474,383 | $1,016,783 | $20,690,541 |
2034 | $18,970,471 | $2,221,643 | $0 | $235,000 | $3,880,298 | $13,770,819 | $1,061,597 | $21,192,113 |
2035 | $19,418,244 | $2,288,292 | $0 | $235,000 | $3,977,306 | $14,073,777 | $1,108,389 | $21,706,536 |
2036 | $19,877,217 | $2,356,941 | $0 | $235,000 | $4,076,738 | $14,383,400 | $1,157,246 | $22,234,158 |
2037 | $20,347,692 | $2,427,649 | $0 | $235,000 | $4,178,657 | $14,699,835 | $1,208,259 | $22,775,341 |
2038 | $20,829,978 | $2,500,478 | $0 | $235,000 | $4,283,123 | $15,023,231 | $1,261,523 | $23,330,456 |
2039 | $21,324,392 | $2,575,493 | $0 | $235,000 | $4,390,201 | $15,353,742 | $1,317,138 | $23,899,885 |
2040 | $21,831,264 | $2,652,758 | $0 | $235,000 | $4,499,956 | $15,691,525 | $1,375,208 | $24,484,021 |
Cost of Utility Services | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
History | Forecast | ||||
Item | 2020 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 |
Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) | $1,264,200 | $1,187,943 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Non-Commodity O&M | $0 | $150,000 | $143,578 | $142,839 | $142,016 |
Cost of Offsets to Goal | $0 | $0 | $69,754 | $61,208 | $57,929 |
Natural Gas Purchased Cost - Energy | $2,275,767 | $2,790,074 | $3,184,741 | $3,603,243 | $4,076,738 |
Electricity Purchased Cost - Energy | $9,391,340 | $9,597,949 | $11,370,319 | $12,900,516 | $14,383,400 |
Mobile Fuels | $545,318 | $575,375 | $751,857 | $932,756 | $1,157,246 |
Total Cash Flow + SCC | $13,488,174 | $15,367,784 | $15,984,906 | $17,877,576 | $19,326,851 |
Total Cost of Energy | $12,223,974 | $12,716,593 | $15,312,906 | $17,205,576 | $18,654,851 |
Item | 2020 | 2021 - 2025 | 2026 - 2030 | 2031 - 2035 | 2036 - 2040 |
Total CAPEX | $2,101,621 | $9,551,192 | $3,360,000 | $3,360,000 |